BUSINESS ACTIVITY | LABOR MARKET | iNDUSTRY eMPLOYMENT
REAL ESTATE | tOURISM AND TRANSPORTATION | OUTLOOK

BUSINESS ACTIVITY

Business and consumer sentiment rebound.

• Results from the Partnership’s Q4 2025 Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey indicate local business confidence rose in the final quarter of 2025, as improved performance helped firms look past ongoing national volatility; confidence in the U.S. economy fell for a second consecutive quarter, following the federal government shutdown in late 2025.
• The rebound mirrors a similar year-end uptick in consumer sentiment in Florida, which rose to 74.9 in December. Both business and consumer sentiment remain below their year-ago levels after a year of uncertainty and significant policy upheaval.
• Through October, total sales in the region were up 3.1% from the same period in 2024, broadly in line with inflation as overall demand proved resilient despite ongoing volatility. Consumer spending was weaker, increasing just 0.9%.

LABOR MARKET

Labor market shifts into lower gear.

• Seasonal gains saw unemployment in the Orlando region fall 0.4 percentage points in December, closing 2025 at 4.4% – the same as the statewide rate but far above its year-ago level of 3.0%. Total unemployment ended 2025 at 67,906, its highest year-end level since 2020.
• Growing softness in the labor market is consistent with reduced hiring reported by area employers. Businesses increasingly indicate they are seeking to do more with less and believe they can grow through innovation and productivity gains rather than recruitment.
• Some employers are looking to Artificial Intelligence (AI) to deliver these productivity gains. The number of monthly job postings in the region seeking AI skills has more than doubled in the last 2 years, increasing to almost 1,200 by late 2025. Demand for talent in the wider Orlando economy has been largely constant over the same period.

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Job growth slows.

• The region added 1,300 jobs in ​December, bringing preliminary gains in the last year to 3,700. Final data for 2025 will be released in March.
• The preliminary total reflects a considerable slowdown from 2024, when 37,500 jobs were added. Job creation appears to have been weighed down primarily by weakness in consumer-driven sectors such as retail (-2,900 jobs), accommodation & food services (-1,700 jobs) and warehousing (-1,500 jobs). Sectors sensitive to higher interest rates such as manufacturing also recorded job losses (-800 jobs).
• Education & healthcare added 10,300 jobs in 2025, by far the most of any industry and 3,400 more than in 2024. The industry continues to remain resilient to cyclical headwinds.
• The recent loss of momentum in the labor market has been felt throughout Florida and beyond. All major regions in the state added fewer jobs in 2025 than in 2024 as the U.S. saw its weakest year of job growth since the pandemic.

REAL ESTATE

Home sales end 2025 on positive note.

• Approximately 6,300 homes were sold in the fourth quarter, 300 more than a year earlier after a drop in mortgage rates stimulated demand early in the quarter. Total sales in 2025 fell 5.6% from 2024, despite the final-quarter rebound.
• The region’s median sales price closed 2025 broadly unchanged from a year earlier at $380,000 as seller concessions and limited new supply continued to mitigate the impact of an increase in inventory. Through October, 4,500 fewer new housing units had been permitted in 2025 than in 2024.
• In the commercial market, industrial vacancy dropped to 7.2% in the fourth quarter – its lowest level since Q1 2024 – as the market continued to absorb recently completed space; office vacancy ended the year at 17.6% after four quarters of negative net absorption, although delayed occupancy from strong leasing in 2025 should see gains in 2026.

TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION

SunRail ridership surpasses 1.3 million.

• SunRail ridership increased for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, welcoming 8.8% more passengers than in 2024. Total ridership in 2025 surpassed 1.3 million, aided by the first complete year of the DeLand station being in operation.
• With December still to report, passenger volume through Orlando International Airport in 2025 is expected to challenge 2024 levels. Total volume through November was up 0.6%, driven almost entirely by an increase in international passengers (+8.6%).
• Area hotels entered the final month of 2025 reporting growth in average daily rate (ADR) but flat occupancy. ADR was up 4.2% year-to-date through November while occupancy was unchanged at 71.2%.

OUTLOOK

U.S. economy to strengthen, Florida and Orlando to outperform.

• U.S. economic growth in 2025 is now forecast to come in at around 2.0%, below the 2.8% recorded in 2024. A surge in imports early in the year, reduced government spending and a slowdown in consumer spending have all contributed to slower growth.
• Growth is expected to rebound to 2.2% in 2026 as easing inflation, tax changes and lower interest rates combine to support consumption. However, the outlook for 2026 remains clouded by ongoing uncertainty over future U.S. government policy.
• The latest forecasts suggest the Florida economy will continue to outperform the national economy in 2026 but by a reduced margin. A slowdown in population growth and a more restrictive immigration environment are expected to act as key headwinds. Orlando is currently projected to be among the state’s leaders in employment growth in 2026 at 1.3%.