BUSINESS ACTIVITY | LABOR MARKET | iNDUSTRY eMPLOYMENT
REAL ESTATE | tOURISM AND TRANSPORTATION | OUTLOOK

BUSINESS ACTIVITY

Business revenue rebounds.

• Gross sales in the region totaled almost $157 billion in the first eight months of 2025, 2.0% more than in the corresponding period of 2024. Preliminary data suggest revenue rebounded in the third quarter after declining in the second, consistent with higher inflation and a wider national trend of sustained spending.
• The resilience broadly mirrors the latest results from the Partnership’s Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey, which shows close to half of area businesses (45%) increased revenue in the third quarter even as confidence in the national economy declined.
• Consumer sentiment also fell in the third quarter, reflecting Floridians’ growing concerns about the national economy. Sentiment hit 78.7 in September, down from 84.1 at the end of Q2 and erasing much of the gains made earlier in the year.

LABOR MARKET

Labor market shifts.

• The region’s labor market continues to become more balanced. Unemployment crept up to 4.3% in August, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and in line with the corresponding statewide rate of 4.4%. Labor market data for September is yet to be published due to the ongoing shutdown of the federal government.
• In August, the total number of unemployed in the region exceeded 65,000 for the first time since late 2021. There were 1.10 unemployed workers in the region for every job posting in August, up from just 0.32 in mid-2022 and above the current U.S. ratio of 1.05.
• Demand for labor largely proved resilient in the third quarter, despite ongoing uncertainty. Average monthly job postings rose 3.0% from the same quarter a year earlier, signaling ongoing demand for key skills even as economic conditions soften.

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Job growth eases.

• The Orlando region added 18,000 jobs in the year ending August 2025, 13,500 fewer than at the same point in 2024.
• Much of the slowdown from 2024 can be attributed to decreased hiring in healthcare and to job losses in  retail and business services. Weakness in these sectors is offsetting increased hiring in finance (aided by recent expansions by BNY Mellon and Charles Schwab) and in leisure & hospitality (boosted by hiring for Epic Universe).
• Year-over-year employment growth in August dropped to 1.2%, below the 2.2% recorded a year earlier but still above the national rate of 0.8%.
• Even as job growth cools, Orlando remains the fastest-growing large region in Florida, and among the top 10 fastest-growing employment centers in the U.S.

REAL ESTATE

Industrial vacancy dips.

• Industrial vacancy fell to 7.8% in the third quarter, its lowest level in a year after Ryder Logistics occupied 1.2 million square feet in Apopka. Sustained strong leasing – up 62% year-to-date from 2024 – and a slowdown in speculative construction should help the industrial market continue to rebalance in the coming quarters.
• Office vacancy inched up to 17.0% in the third quarter after three consecutive quarters of negative absorption. The Airport/Lake Nona submarket recorded the highest vacancy rate at 29.0% but this will normalize when Siemens Energy occupies 243,000 square feet at 6876 Marwick Lane, the largest lease signed during the third quarter.
• The region’s housing market is beginning to see greater activity after interest rates fell to their lowest level in a year. Sales fell just 0.2% in September from a year earlier – the lowest monthly decline of 2025 – as the average rate paid by buyers dropped to 6.05%.

TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION

International passenger volume at Orlando International at all-time high.

• With just September still to report, passenger volume through Orlando International Airport in FY 2025 is expected to fall marginally short of FY 2024 levels.
• Volume through August was down 2.9%, largely due to a decline in domestic passengers earlier in the year as several airlines normalized post-pandemic capacity out of Florida while navigating additional industry challenges including aircraft delivery delays and engine overhaul requirements. However, seat capacity is growing again and domestic passenger volume increased year-over-year in both July and August. International passenger volume is at an all-time high, at 8.3 million for the year ending August 2025.
• Hotel performance closed the third quarter marginally ahead of 2024 levels. Year-to-date occupancy through September was up nominally to 71.1%, while average daily rate rose 3.8% to $200.43.

OUTLOOK

U.S. growth forecast upgraded.

• U.S. economic growth in 2025 is now expected to come in at around 2%, below the 2.8% recorded in 2024 but higher than previously projected after evidence higher tariffs have proven less disruptive than expected.
• Contrasting viewpoints are emerging regarding the outlook for 2026. Some forecasts point to stronger recent readings on consumer spending as the basis for more robust growth ahead, while others suggest the combination of sustained high inflation, persistent policy uncertainty, and still-elevated interest rates should see growth slow further. The ongoing absence of federal statistics continues to cloud analysis of the economy.
• The latest UCF forecast suggests the Florida economy will continue to outperform the national economy in 2026, growing at a rate of 2.8%. The Orlando region is again projected to be among the state’s leaders in employment growth.