recent economic data | monthly indicators

SUMMARY

  • Sales activity in Orlando was broadly flat in July, likely a result of both weakening consumer finances and easing inflation.
  • The region added 2,000 jobs in July to bring total gains in the last year to 27,100. After a slowdown in early 2024, job growth is again outpacing the nation and in most sectors.
  • Unemployment increased for the third consecutive month in July as the labor market continues to normalize. Companies are taking less time to fill open roles and are being less aggressive on wages.
  • The housing market is hoping for a decline in mortgage rates to jumpstart demand after sales and prices both faltered during the summer.
  • Cruise passenger volume at Port Canaveral is on pace to reach a record high in FY 2024 with more homeported ships, new cruise lines, and newer, larger ships.
  • U.S. economic growth in 2024 is forecast to be around 2.5% – the same as in 2023 – but may slow in 2025 as households cut spending in a less vibrant labor market.
  • Orlando businesses should continue to seek local growth opportunities to offset what may be a period of modest, sub-par growth nationally.

RECENT ECONOMIC DATA

SALES ACTIVITY

The latest sales data suggest business revenue expanded by just 0.4% in July, with consumer-facing sectors in particular facing headwinds. A deterioration in household finances is likely to be the main driver, although easing inflation may also be a factor.

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT​

The region added a net gain of 27,100 jobs in the year ending July 2024. Growth is again outpacing the nation following the addition of 2,000 jobs in July and downward revisions to national data earlier in 2024.

JOB GROWTH BY SECTOR

The region’s tourism and healthcare sectors continue to be key sources of job growth in the region, even as growth now eases in each. All but two local sectors – finance and manufacturing – are currently outpacing their national counterparts in year-over-year job growth.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment increased in July for the third consecutive month, rising in absolute terms to its highest level since October 2021. However, at 3.7%, the region’s unemployment rate (as well as those of all local counties) remains far below the national rate of 4.5%.

JOB POSTINGS

A softening labor market appears to be resulting in companies finding it easier to fill open roles. Companies are also pulling back on wages: the median advertised wage across job postings declined nominally in July from June.

HOUSING MARKET

The increasing likelihood of a September decline in mortgage rates bodes well for the local housing market. Sales and prices have both struggled to sustain their previous momentum through the summer.

PORT CANAVERAL

With two months remaining, Port Canaveral is on pace to welcome a record 7.3 million cruise passengers in FY 2024. A wider rebound in cruise demand is being facilitated by new, larger ships replacing ships carrying slightly less passengers (Royal Caribbean’s Utopia of the Seas replacing Allure of the Seas, for example).

OUTLOOK

Economic growth in 2024 is now forecast to come in at around 2.5% following a better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year. However, faltering consumer spending and emerging weakness in the labor market is likely to see growth slow in the second half of the year and into 2025.

MONTHLY INDICATORS