BUSINESS ACTIVITY | LABOR MARKET | iNDUSTRY eMPLOYMENT
REAL ESTATE | tOURISM AND TRANSPORTATION | OUTLOOK

BUSINESS ACTIVITY

Growth in business revenue outpaces inflation.

• Total sales in the region exceeded $169 billion in the first nine months of 2024, 4.3% more than in the corresponding period of 2023. Inflation averaged 3.0% over the same period.
• Preliminary data suggest growth slowed to 1.5% in the third quarter, with easing inflation and a slowdown in the region’s visitor economy likely to be the main drivers.
• The latest results from the Partnership’s Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey suggest local business confidence rebounded in the third quarter, despite political uncertainty intensifying ahead of November’s elections.
• Consumer sentiment rose in each month of the third quarter, reflecting Floridians’ increasingly positive views on the nation’s economy. Sentiment hit 78.3 in September, a full 12 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

LABOR MARKET

Unemployment inches up.

• Unemployment closed the quarter at 3.4%, threetenths of a percentage point higher than 12 months earlier but below the U.S. rate of 3.9%. All four local counties reported slightly higher unemployment rates in September than a year earlier.
• A growing volume of retirements - a trend being reported across the state - appears to be behind recent declines in the labor force and household employment. The region’s labor force in September was 13,000 smaller than a year earlier.
• Monthly job postings averaged 61,500 in the third quarter, approximately 15% less than in the corresponding quarter of 2023 as demand for talent continued to ease.
• Area companies with the most online job postings during the quarter reflect the importance and strength of the region’s healthcare sector. AdventHealth, Orlando Health and HCA were the three most active job posters in each month of the quarter.

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Job growth continues to ease.

• The region added 1,100 jobs in ​September, bringing gains in the third quarter to 8,100 and gains over the last year to 19,600.
• Year-over-year employment growth closed the third quarter at 1.3%. Employment growth has eased throughout 2024 and is currently running at approximately half of 2023 levels.
• Most sectors have added fewer jobs than at this same point last year. Growth in hospitality payrolls has waned most significantly - contributing less than 30 percent of the jobs added at this time last year - while a robust expansion in business services in 2023 has turned into a modest contraction in 2024.
• The region’s construction industry has seen the biggest turnaround in its fortunes, contributing the most jobs of any sector over the last 12 months and growing at the fastest pace year-over-year.

REAL ESTATE

Home sales extend decline.

• Approximately 7,500 homes were sold in the third quarter, 600 fewer than a year earlier despite mortgage rates falling in each month of the quarter.
• Year-over-year price growth slowed to 2.7% in September as inventory increased for the ninth consecutive month. The number of homes on the market closed the quarter at 11,560, the most since late 2015.
• In the commercial market, industrial vacancy rose to 8.1% in the third quarter, its highest rate since early 2015. Almost 5 million square feet of new product was delivered in the first nine months of 2024, much of it speculative.
• Increases in vacancy in the office market have slowed alongside a modest rebound in demand but closed the third quarter still elevated at 17.1%.

TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION

Passenger volume at Orlando International to exceed last year.

• With just September still to report, passenger volume through Orlando International Airport in FY 2024 is expected to surpass FY 2023 levels.
• Volume through August has increased 4.9%, with recent monthly declines driven in part by several airlines reducing capacity out of Florida to more normal levels after significantly increasing post-pandemic.
• Area hotels closed the third quarter by reporting year-over-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) but a relative softening in occupancy. ADR rose $3.88 to $175.80 in September while occupancy fell 2.1 percentage points to 64.3%.
• The planned opening of Universal's Epic Universe - now announced for May 2025 - may be contributing to weaker demand across the tourism economy as would-be visitors in 2024 delay trips to next year.

OUTLOOK

U.S. economy proves resilient, Florida to outperform.

• U.S. economic growth in 2024 is now expected to come close to the 2.9% recorded in 2023 following sustained strong consumer spending and a healthy labor market that continues to support consumption.
• Some softening appears likely late in the year and into 2025 as the lagged effects of a period of higher interest rates feed through to households and businesses. However, growth in 2025 should increasingly be energized by less restrictive monetary policy and could surpass 2%.
• The latest forecasts continue to suggest the Florida economy will outperform the national economy by at least half a percentage point in both 2024 and 2025, with ongoing population growth a key tailwind.