BUSINESS ACTIVITY | LABOR MARKET | iNDUSTRY eMPLOYMENT
REAL ESTATE | tOURISM AND TRANSPORTATION | OUTLOOK

BUSINESS ACTIVITY

Business and consumer sentiment increase.

• Total sales in the region exceeded $222 billion in 2024, 3.4% more than in 2023. Preliminary data suggest sales fell 1.0% in the fourth quarter, with adverse weather in October and election uncertainty likely to be the main drivers.
• The slowdown is consistent with the latest results from the Partnership’s Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey, which suggested revenue was broadly flat in Q4.
• The end of the election cycle saw local business confidence in the national economy increase, and businesses in the region appear ready to invest in key initiatives in 2025. Consumer sentiment among Floridians also soared in December, to 86.4, its highest level in more than four years,

LABOR MARKET

Unemployment ticks down.

• Seasonal hiring saw unemployment in the Orlando region fall 0.5 percentage points in December, closing 2024 at just 3.0% - below the statewide rate of 3.1% and national rate of 3.8%. Ocoee and Winter Garden ended 2024 with the lowest unemployment rates in the region at 2.6%.
• Monthly job postings averaged 59,400 in the fourth quarter, in line with the corresponding quarter of 2023 as demand for labor continued to prove resilient.
• Despite some easing in mid-2024, the region’s labor market remains tight entering 2025. In December, there continued to be more jobs looking for people than people looking for jobs, and this is unlikely to change in 2025 as shifts in migration patterns weigh on labor force participation.

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Region hits 1.5 million jobs.

• The region added 3,500 jobs in ​December, bringing preliminary gains in the last year to 16,000. Final data for 2024 will be released in March.
• The preliminary total reflects a slowdown from 2023, when 42,000 jobs were added. Job creation appears to have eased in healthcare and leisure & hospitality, both key contributors to recent job growth.
• Construction added 6,100 jobs in 2024, the most of any industry in 2024 and 3,800 more than in 2023. The industry continues to benefit from ongoing healthcare projects in the region.
• The fourth quarter also saw the region hit a major employment milestone, becoming one of just 22 regions in the U.S. with more than 1.5 million jobs.

REAL ESTATE

Home prices end 2024 on more sustainable trajectory.

• Approximately 6,000 homes were sold in the fourth quarter, 400 fewer than a year earlier as mortgage rates remained stubbornly high. Total sales in 2024 fell 7% from 2023, despite rebounding in December.
• Year-over-year price growth closed 2024 at 3.5%, closer to long-term averages, as limited new supply continued to mitigate the impact of an increase in inventory. 1,800 fewer new housing units were permitted in 2024 than in 2023.
• In the commercial market, industrial vacancy rose to 8.3% in the fourth quarter after more than 5 million square feet of new product was delivered during the year; office vacancy ended the year unchanged at 17.0% on nominally positive absorption as hopes of a modest recovery gained traction.

TOURISM & TRANSPORTATION

SunRail ridership surpasses 1.2 million.

• SunRail ridership increased for the third consecutive year in 2024, welcoming 12% more passengers than in 2023. Total ridership in 2024 surpassed 1.2 million, aided in part by the opening of the DeLand station in August.
• With December still to report, passenger volume through Orlando International Airport in 2024 is expected to be in line with 2023 levels, after a strong first half of the year was offset by several airlines normalizing post-pandemic capacity out of Florida in the second.
• Area hotels closed the fourth quarter by reporting year-over-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) alongside an increase in occupancy. ADR rose $4.48 to $209.93 in December while occupancy increased 2.8 percentage points to 73.2%.

OUTLOOK

U.S. economy to ease, Florida and Orlando to outperform.

• The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in 2024, in line with the 2.9% recorded in 2023. Q4 data continued to suggest solid consumer spending supported by a healthy labor market.
• Growth is expected to ease to 2.1% in 2025, with inflation still elevated and recent momentum likely to delay any additional interest rate cuts. The economic outlook for 2025 is also clouded by uncertainty over future U.S. trade and immigration policy.
• The latest forecasts suggest the Florida economy will outperform the national economy in 2025 by around a percentage point, with ongoing population growth likely to offset the state’s exposure to any trade and immigration shocks. Orlando should follow a similar trajectory as the state’s fastest-growing economy in 2023.