recent economic data | current business sentiment | monthly indicators

SUMMARY

  • Growth in consumer spending in Orlando softened in early 2024 as consumers across the country began to pull back on spending.
  • Revised labor market data suggest the region added 42,000 jobs in 2023 but seasonal job losses have slowed growth in the first few months of 2024.​
  • The region welcomed 55,000 new residents in the year ending July 2023; ongoing population growth is resulting in strong labor force growth in all local counties.​
  • The housing market is beginning to emerge from a challenging period ahead of the spring homebuying season.​
  • A first-quarter surge in business confidence continued in March, with area employers again highlighting their recent strong performance.​
  • Businesses are increasingly targeting new clients and moving away from defensive tactics such as internal improvements to cut costs.​
  • Florida’s economy may slow alongside the national economy in 2024, but growth in the local market should ensure ongoing opportunity for Orlando businesses.​

RECENT ECONOMIC DATA

SALES

The latest sales data suggest growth in consumer spending softened in early 2024, falling below inflation in February for the first time in six months. A pullback in spending has also been reported nationally following a sustained period of inflation.​

JOB GROWTH

Revised estimates suggest Orlando added 42,200 jobs in 2023, a significant increase from the 27,100 originally reported. The new numbers equate to an average of 116 new jobs per day in 2023 and represent a return to pre-pandemic trends.​

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

Employment growth in the Orlando region outperformed the nation throughout 2023. However, seasonal job losses in early 2024 have brought local growth back in line with the nation for the first time in several years. Retail and warehousing have collectively reported a net loss of over 10,000 jobs since December.​

POPULATION GROWTH​

The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate the region added 55,000 new residents between July 2022 and July 2023 - the fourth highest of any region in the U.S. In percentage terms, Orlando was the second fastest-growing large region in the U.S. for the second consecutive year, with net migration again the driving force.​

LABOR FORCE

Population growth is resulting in ongoing expansion of the  region’s labor force, which grew by​ 27,600 in the last​ year. Orange County reported the greatest absolute increase over the period - adding 15,175 new workers - while Lake has seen the greatest percentage increase.​

JOB POSTINGS​

Employers appear to be reacting to historically low unemployment by loosening educational requirements. The percentage of job postings listing a Bachelor’s degree as the minimum education requirement fell to less than one in four in February 2024.​

HOUSING​

Monthly home sales increased in March for the first time in eight months as the housing market showed early signs of a rebound. Inventory and pending sales also rose as confidence returned to the market ahead of the spring homebuying season.​

OUTLOOK

Florida’s economy is forecast to slow in 2024, but the state will remain a regional economic leader and continue to outpace the nation. Employment is forecast to grow 2.1% (compared to 1.4% nationally) and unemployment will average just 3.5% (compared to 4.0%).​

CURRENT BUSINESS SENTIMENT

PERFORMANCE & EXPECTATIONS

Nearly 50% of businesses responding to the OEP’s Orlando Business Conditions Survey in the three months ending March 2024 reported increased revenue and 66% project increased revenue over the next three months. Hiring and investment intentions continue to be more muted as the impact of a period of economic uncertainty lingers. ​

The surge in confidence previously reported in January and February continued in March. 85% of respondents during the month indicated they believe their business will strengthen over the next three months, with one in four during the quarter citing their recent strong performance as the main reason for their outlook.

OPPORTUNITIES​

Increased business confidence is prompting businesses to transition from defensive to proactive strategies. ​

A comparison of preliminary quarterly data suggests a much higher share of businesses in the first quarter of 2024 were looking to secure new clients than in the final quarter of 2023, while a much lower share were placing emphasis on internal improvements designed to reduce costs.​

MONTHLY INDICATORS